With September employment launched as we speak (336,000 vs. 170,000 Bloomberg consensus), we’ve got the next image of the financial system.
Determine 1: Non-agricultural wage employment incorporating the preliminary benchmark (darkish blue), September implicit NFP incorporating the Bloomberg 10/2 consensus (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private earnings excluding transfers in $ Ch.2017 (inexperienced), manufacturing and business gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue) and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11 =0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Preliminary BLS BenchmarkFederal Reserve, second model of BEA 2023Q2 by way of FRED, S&P International/IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (10/2/2023), Atlanta Fed (10/5/2023) and writer’s calculations.
Determine 1 exhibits nonfarm payroll employment incorporating the preliminary benchmark that revised March 2023 employment downward by 306,000. Determine 2 exhibits the official sequence (tan) in comparison with different measures of employment non-agricultural worker.
Determine 2: Nonfarm wage employment (bronze), NFP employment incorporating the preliminary benchmark calculated by the writer (daring blue), Philadelphia Fed’s first benchmark (inexperienced), family employment adjusted to adapt to the NFP idea (mild blue), and employment coated QCEW census-adjusted X- 13 by writer (pink), all in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Philadelphia Fed, BLS, BLS-QCEW and writer’s calculations.
The family sequence adjusted to the NFP idea appears a bit softer than the CES sequence. Nevertheless, this partly displays the softer studying from the CPS survey (see Determine 1, orange line).
Nonetheless no obvious recession in 2023M09, though these information will probably be revised, so no assurance.