12 months-over-year progress is accelerating modestly, in response to the IEM.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory weekly financial index (blue) and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims weekly financial index for the US plus 2% development (inexperienced), all annual progress charges in %. Supply: New York Fed through FRED, WECIconsulted on 11/5, and calculations by the creator.
The WECI+2% via 10/28 is (2.06%), whereas the WEI studying is 2.23%. The latter determine might be interpreted as an annual quarterly progress of two.23% if the two.23% determine have been to persist for a complete quarter. Baumeister et al. a studying of +0.1% is interpreted as a progress fee of 0.06% above the long-term development progress fee. The common US GDP progress over the interval 2000-2019 is round 2%, implying a progress fee of two.06% for the yr ending October 28.
Recall that the WEI depends on correlations in ten collection obtainable at a weekly frequency (for instance, job functions, gasoline gross sales, retail gross sales), whereas the WECI depends on a mannequin with mixed-frequency dynamic components.