Industrial manufacturing is down, -0.6% m/m towards -0.3% consensus. Right here is the desk of financial cycle indicators adopted by the BCDC of the NBER, in addition to the month-to-month GDP of the SPGMI (new macroeconomic advisor):
Determine 1: Non-agricultural salaried employment together with the preliminary benchmark (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding transfers in $Ch.2017 (inexperienced), manufacturing and industrial gross sales in $Ch.2017 (black) , consumption in $Ch.2017 (gentle blue) and month-to-month GDP in $Ch.2017 (pink), GDP (blue bars), all logarithmic normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Preliminary BLS BenchmarkFederal Reserve, third model of BEA 2023Q2 incorporating complete revisions, S&P International/IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (11/1/2023) and calculations by the creator.
The disadvantages are shocking within the CPI and industrial manufacturing seem to have pushed ten-year Treasury yields decrease, whereas the PPI shock had little impact.
